Population Projections and State Services

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Population Projections and State Services (Proof)
About this Item
Speakers - Speaker; Torbay Mr Richard; Hazzard Mr Brad
Business - Questions Without Notice, QWN

POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND STATE SERVICES
Page: 45

Mr RICHARD TORBAY: My question is directed to the Minister for Planning and Infrastructure. Given the strong concerns expressed by many, including the 13 local governments in the New England north west, regarding the flawed model used to project population changes, will the Minister commit to reviewing this process, as the figures are used to determine State service levels?

Mr Michael Daley: Brad, don't be a clown.

The SPEAKER: Order! The member for Maroubra will come to order. The Minister has not even started his answer.

Mr Michael Daley: I know what he is going to say.

Mr BRAD HAZZARD: The member for Maroubra is still upset that he did not get a mention in this book. To find the first one named in the book we have to work our way along the front bench and come three in because the member for Canterbury missed out as well.

The SPEAKER: Order! The Minister will return to the leave of the question.

Mr BRAD HAZZARD: There are a lot of quotes about the one just behind the member for Maroubra, but she keeps her head down most of the time. If she keeps her head down today I will leave her alone.

The SPEAKER: Order! The Minister will return to the leave of the question.

Mr BRAD HAZZARD: I thank the member for Northern Tablelands for his question and acknowledge his advocacy for the people of his electorate.

[Interruption]

This is a serious question from a serious member of Parliament, not a Labor member of Parliament. The member for Shellharbour should listen to what is going on. This issue is a matter of importance across New South Wales, not just in the New England area. In the first few weeks of being appointed the Minister for Planning and Infrastructure I held a meeting with departmental officers for some hours and discussed this precise issue, amongst others. The disparity between various statistical figures is a serious issue, particularly as so much of our State's planning and infrastructure is based on these figures. I know from representations by the member for Northern Tablelands and local councils in the New England area that this issue is one of major concern and one that the Government is pleased to clarify.

The Department of Planning and Infrastructure undertakes modelling to project population growth and distribution across the State and uses this information for land use planning and to understand the infrastructure and service needs of an area, particularly New England. The department's population projection model uses a methodology that is the international industry standard and parallels that used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and leading academics. Concerns have been raised by the member for Northern Tablelands and local council representatives in relation to apparent disparities between figures produced by the department and those released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. I am advised that these apparent disparities between 30-year projections released by the department and short-term trends indicated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in its Estimated Resident Populations document can occur because of the relative timing of data availability and access to information on local economic and population change factors.

The department's latest projections, which were released in 2008, show a 7 per cent decline over the long term for the northern inland region. This is for the period from 2006 to 2036. However, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported positive growth in the region's resident population in the four years from 2007 to 2010. Given the disparity in figures, it is understandable there is some concern in the community of the member for Northern Tablelands. The population projections of the Department of Planning and Infrastructure, under the model used by Labor, I might add, in 2008, are not intended to be an annual prediction of population growth. Rather the department model is the most likely demographic scenario over the medium to long term based on assumptions made in relation to likely future fertility rates, mortality and the movement of people into and out of the area. Because these demographic factors can vary considerably from year to year, it is not unusual for estimates of population to differ from official results. We all know that Labor has never been big on consultation.

Ms Anna Watson: Don't you dare talk about consultation.

Mr BRAD HAZZARD: The member for Shellharbour is only here because of what is sitting to her left.

The SPEAKER: Order! The member for Shellharbour will come to order.

Mr BRAD HAZZARD: She is only here so long as Noreen lets her be here. She had better consult with her. She should remember what happened to her predecessor.

The SPEAKER: Order! The Minister will return to the leave of the question.

Mr BRAD HAZZARD: It will come as no surprise—

The SPEAKER: Order! The member for Maroubra will come to order.

Mr BRAD HAZZARD: They think they were big on consultation. They went from how many members down to how many members? There was not too much consultation. On most days in the House there are about 15 of them here. Today a few more of them must have come in for lunch.

The SPEAKER: Order! The member for Murray-Darling will come to order.

Mr BRAD HAZZARD: It will come as no surprise that the former Labor Government's approach in developing its projections could be characterised by a complete lack of consultation with local members of the community and local members of Parliament about the issues that feed into population growth. The Liberal-Nationals Government is committed to a different approach. We already have begun implementing reforms to improve the quality of engagement with local communities and, in turn, the quality of our data and the accuracy of our growth projections. As Minister I have ensured that from February next year the Department of Planning and Infrastructure will undertake a series of population road shows across the State.

The department will talk to local councils and State agencies and seek their direct input into formulating local population projections. The department also will work with the Australian Bureau of Statistics to ensure that our work is better aligned with the bureau's approach. We also will align our forecasting models with those in Victoria and Queensland, which will provide for greater consistency between jurisdictions. Once again, we are demonstrating that we are listening to communities and getting on with the job. We are working hard. The former Labor Government did not work hard. That is why Labor has only 15, 16, 17 members—maybe 20 on a good day—in the House.